DCW DAILY BRIEF-Global Digital Assets, ScienceTech & Web3 Market Intelligence

DCW DAILY BRIEF

Global Digital Assets, ScienceTech and Web3 Market Intelligence

Date: Monday 2nd November 2026 | Edition 569 | Updated 06:00 GMT

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James Bowater

linkedin.com/in/james-bowater-b47612 | Twitter/X: X.com@JamesBowater

https://www.dcwi.co.uk/

📖 QUICK READ

Monday 2nd November 2026, Iran War Day 248, opens with Binance back in operation and the AI sell-off spreading to chipmakers. Binance began a phased reopening of withdrawals at 06:00 UTC on Sunday, restored all 15 first-phase networks by 12:36 UTC and processed about $4.65 billion of withdrawals against $1.01 billion of deposits by mid-afternoon, and says it has now covered about 95 percent of the impacted amount. On Saturday the FBI formally attributed the $6.3 billion theft to North Korea's TraderTraitor group. On Wall Street on Friday the S&P 500 fell 1.82 percent to 7,580.07, its worst day since June, and the Nasdaq 2.86 percent to 25,437.00, as Intel plunged 28.58 percent in its worst session since 1974 and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 7.2 percent. Gold fell about 3.6 percent to a one-year low near $3,875 and silver dropped below $50. OPEC+ held December output steady on Sunday, and Brent is lower on Monday as Iran and Qatar hold a third day of talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Apple reports after the US close today and Americans vote in the midterm elections tomorrow.

Crypto market snapshot in the European morning, with total market capitalisation of approximately $2.69 trillion and the CoinGlass Fear and Greed Index at 38 in Fear territory: Bitcoin is near $78,000 to $78,500, up about 0.5 to 1 percent after holding above $77,000 through the weekend; Ether is near $2,260 to $2,300, up about 1 percent; XRP is near $1.25; Solana is near $95 to $97; Cardano is near $0.192; and Dogecoin is near $0.0755, with BNB near $700 to $710.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.3 million on Friday, ending a four-day inflow streak with their largest daily outflow since late June, while Ether ETFs lost $155.9 million in a fifth straight session of redemptions. Binance's reopening has so far produced net outflows of about $3.64 billion without disorder, and the FBI has published more than 600 Ethereum addresses linked to the attackers. Brazil's crypto licensing window closed with only about 40 applicants, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise rates on Tuesday, the Bank of England decides on Thursday and the US October jobs report follows on Friday.

🔥 HOT OFF THE PRESS

Binance Reopens Withdrawals and Covers 95 Percent of Its $6.3 Billion Loss as the FBI Names North Korea, While Intel's Record Collapse Hands the S&P 500 Its Worst Day Since June

Binance began the phased resumption of withdrawals between 06:00 and 09:00 UTC on Sunday 1st November, opening the Bitcoin network first and then Ethereum, BNB Smart Chain and stablecoins including USDT and USDC, and by 12:36 UTC withdrawals had resumed across all 15 networks and assets in the first phase. Between 06:00 and 15:30 UTC the exchange processed $4.649 billion of withdrawals and $1.01 billion of deposits, leaving net outflows of about $3.64 billion, and said volumes declined and stabilised after an initial spike. Binance said on Saturday that it had set aside more than $6.34 billion of company funds to cover the loss, and its replenishment of affected assets has risen from 80 percent to 90 percent and now to about 95 percent, with the remainder in less liquid tokens that take longer to buy; the figure measures backing restored by Binance, not funds recovered from the attacker. Co-Chief Executive Richard Teng said Binance, not its users, will absorb the financial impact, and no timetable has yet been given for the second phase of reopening.

On Saturday the FBI, working with the US Secret Service and IRS Criminal Investigation, confirmed that North Korea was responsible for the theft of more than $6 billion from Binance on or about 29th October, naming the TraderTraitor group, a Lazarus subunit it previously linked to the Bybit and DMM Bitcoin thefts. The bureau said the actors have been converting stolen assets primarily into Ether and expects further laundering through DeFi and instant swap services, and it published more than 600 Ethereum addresses, nearly 20 Bitcoin addresses and one Solana address for blocking, while TRM Labs estimates that 18,270 BTC, worth about $1.47 billion, was among the assets taken. On Wall Street, Friday's session extended the AI reckoning to semiconductors: Intel sank 28.58 percent after a weak fourth quarter forecast, SanDisk fell 14.1 percent, Qualcomm 11.12 percent, AMD 10.88 percent and Nvidia 4.22 percent, and the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.82 percent, 2.86 percent and 1.09 percent respectively. US stock futures edged higher in early Asian trading on Monday, suggesting the selling may be easing ahead of Apple's results.

📊 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Iran War Day 248 finds markets entering a week crowded with risk events after the worst session for US equities since June. On Friday the S&P 500 fell 1.82 percent to 7,580.07, the Nasdaq Composite 2.86 percent to 25,437.00, the Nasdaq 100 3.46 percent to 28,384.85, the Dow Jones Industrial Average 1.09 percent to 51,770.31 and the Russell 2000 1.66 percent to 2,811.84. For October the S&P 500 fell 0.94 percent and the Nasdaq 5.3 percent, while the Dow gained 1.7 percent, and both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq recorded a third straight weekly decline. In Asia on Monday, South Korea's KOSPI recovered from an early loss of about 1.6 percent after Friday's 3.48 percent slide, Chinese shares rose more than 1 percent on reports of a policy support meeting, and the Nikkei 225 was broadly flat as memory maker Kioxia fell sharply.

The geopolitical picture is finely balanced ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a Qatar-mediated proposal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days, compressed from seven, with US measures on the first day and the reopening on the second, but Tehran's conditions include lifting recent US sanctions, restoring the June oil waivers and a reduced US military presence. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Trump has not decided whether to resume strikes, Mr Trump said the US was not in a hurry to agree a deal, and renewed strikes are not expected before the vote. At sea, the Qatari LNG carrier Al Mayeda was struck near Hormuz on Sunday and the Revolutionary Guards claimed two tanker mine strikes, while Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei instructed the armed forces to prepare a response without geographic limits. OPEC+ kept its December targets unchanged, and Brent has fallen by between 1.4 and 2.9 percent to around $110 to $112 on Monday.

Bitcoin is trading near $77,800 to $78,700 on Monday, up about 0.5 to 1.2 percent over 24 hours, after briefly falling towards $76,300 on Friday and then holding a tight $77,000 to $78,000 range over the weekend without sustained panic selling, with dominance near 58.5 percent. Ether is near $2,260 to $2,300, XRP near $1.25 and Solana near $95 to $97, and total crypto market capitalisation stands at approximately $2.69 trillion, with 24 hour volume near $105 billion. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.3 million on Friday, turning October into a net outflow of about $515 million, and Ether ETFs extended a record run of daily outflows.

Eight dominant narratives define Monday 2nd November: (1) Binance Reopens Withdrawals Across 15 Networks and Says 95 Percent of the Loss Is Covered as Net Outflows Reach $3.64 Billion; (2) FBI Attributes the $6.3 Billion Binance Theft to North Korea's TraderTraitor; (3) Intel Suffers Its Worst Day Since 1974 as the Chip Index Falls 7.2 Percent and the S&P 500 Has Its Worst Session Since June; (4) Bitcoin ETFs Record $643 Million of Outflows, the Largest Since June, as Ether ETF Redemptions Extend a Record Streak; (5) Gold Falls to a One-Year Low Below $3,900 and Silver Drops Below $50; (6) OPEC+ Holds December Output Steady Ahead of a 29th November Decision on 2027 Quotas; (7) Oil Eases as Iran and Qatar Discuss a Two-Day Plan to Reopen Hormuz; (8) Apple Reports Tonight Ahead of Tuesday's Midterm Elections and Central Bank Decisions in Australia and the UK.

💬 QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Binance will absorb the financial impact of the stolen funds, not our users."

~ Richard Teng, Co-Chief Executive of Binance, writing on X on Sunday 1st November as the exchange began the phased resumption of withdrawals after the largest theft in crypto history

📰 TODAY'S HEADLINES

💹 MARKETS

Wall Street Ends October With Its Worst Day Since June, Futures Steady Ahead of Apple, and Asian Markets Recover as China Signals Support

US equities closed a turbulent month on a weak note on Friday. The S&P 500 fell 140.32 points, or 1.82 percent, to 7,580.07, its largest one-day drop since 5th June, although it closed well off its intraday low of 7,527.67, and the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF fell only 0.79 percent, showing that the average stock fared far better than the index. The Nasdaq Composite fell 747.73 points to 25,437.00, near three-month lows, the S&P technology sector fell nearly 5 percent, and the SOX index broke below key technical support and finished October down more than 15 percent. Over the week the S&P 500 fell 0.58 percent, the Nasdaq 2 percent and the Dow 0.85 percent, giving the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq their longest run of weekly declines since March, and the Nasdaq ended October with its worst monthly fall since March 2025. The week brings ISM manufacturing today, JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, ADP payrolls on Wednesday and the October jobs report on Friday.

Asian equities opened lower on Monday before recovering. South Korea's KOSPI, which fell 3.48 percent to 5,730.74 on Friday amid about $1.6 billion of foreign selling, opened 1.62 percent lower but rebounded as institutional investors bought a net 570.5 billion won of shares, and was later up by as much as about 2.8 percent. Chinese shares rallied on reports that the People's Bank of China would meet financial and securities regulators and major banks to study improvements to a relending programme for share buybacks, following the CSI 300's worst month in more than a decade, with the Shanghai Composite up about 1.2 percent at the midday break and the Hang Seng up about 0.6 percent. Japan's Nikkei 225 was little changed near 63,280 as Kioxia fell about 14 percent after warning about stalling flash memory prices, and Tokyo is closed on Tuesday for a public holiday. In London on Friday, the FTSE 100 rose 0.07 percent to 10,729.78, logging its first monthly gain in three months, as consumer staples rose while NatWest fell 8.8 percent to 579.60p on a weaker net interest margin outlook, Lloyds and Barclays fell 5 percent and 3.8 percent, and precious metal miners lost 5.3 percent; the FTSE 250 slipped nearly 1 percent.

📈 MARKET OVERVIEW TOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP: APPROXIMATELY $2.69 TRILLION | Monday 2nd November 2026

Total crypto market capitalisation stands at approximately $2.69 trillion on Monday, down about 0.5 percent over 24 hours according to CoinGecko data at 01:30 UTC, with Bitcoin's dominance at approximately 58.5 percent, Ether's at about 10.4 percent and 24 hour trading volume of approximately $105 billion. The market spent the weekend absorbing the Binance reopening rather than reacting to it: Bitcoin held between $77,000 and $78,000 without sustained panic selling and BNB traded near $700 to $712. Institutional flows remain the weak spot, with spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs together losing about $800 million on Friday, which suggests institutional capital has yet to return in size. THORChain's RUNE token rose more than 13 percent on Friday after on-chain investigator ZachXBT reported that funds from the Binance theft and September's Bitget hack had passed through the protocol before being combined at the same Ethereum address.

₿ BITCOIN (BTC) approx $77,800-$78,700

Bitcoin fell as low as about $76,340 on Friday 30th October, the lowest price of the week, before recovering, and it was quoted near $77,725 on Sunday morning with only about $656 between the overnight high and low, its narrowest range since 17th October. On Monday it is trading near $77,800 to $78,700, up about 0.5 to 1.2 percent over 24 hours, with a market capitalisation of about $1.57 trillion, after closing October with four straight weekly losses and a second consecutive losing October. FXStreet notes that Bitcoin has found support around its 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, and CoinDesk reports that industry leaders have pointed to its resilience, with the price stabilising above $77,000 despite the scale of the Binance theft. Bitcoin was the first network that Binance reopened for withdrawals on Sunday.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $643.33 million on Friday 30th October, according to SoSoValue, ending a four-session inflow streak with the largest single-day withdrawal since 25th June. BlackRock's IBIT lost $233.70 million, Fidelity's FBTC $201.04 million, ARK 21Shares' ARKB $129.55 million, Grayscale's GBTC $53.32 million and Bitwise's BITB $25.72 million. For the week of 26th to 30th October the funds recorded net outflows of $203 million, with IBIT taking in $177 million while FBTC lost $166 million and ARKB $130 million, and October as a whole became a net outflow of about $515 million. Total net assets stand at $98.14 billion, about 6.34 percent of Bitcoin's market capitalisation, and cumulative net inflows since launch are $56.98 billion.

Immediate support lies at $77,400, then $76,600 and $76,000, close to Friday's low, while resistance sits at $79,300, then $80,000 and $81,500, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

 ETHEREUM (ETH) approx $2,260-$2,300

Ether fell as low as about $2,177 on Friday as derivatives traders suffered more than $350 million of liquidations, then recovered above $2,250 over the weekend, trading near $2,266 on Sunday and between $2,260 and $2,300 on Monday, up about 1 percent over 24 hours. US spot Ether ETFs recorded net outflows of $155.85 million on Friday, a fifth straight session, led by BlackRock's ETHA at $76.64 million, with ETHB losing $19.5 million and Grayscale's two main funds about $55.6 million combined. The funds lost about $431 million over the week and roughly $1.6 billion in October, their worst month of the year, and total net assets have fallen to $13.22 billion, about 4.83 percent of Ether's market capitalisation, against cumulative net inflows of $12.29 billion.

Glassnode data cited by Wu Blockchain show 23 consecutive trading days of net outflows from US spot Ether ETFs through 30th October, the longest streak since the funds launched in July 2024, even as on-chain staking continued to set records and the price held between $2,200 and $2,500 through more than $1 billion of redemptions. Ether was among the first assets restored in Binance's reopening on Sunday, with withdrawals available on Ethereum mainnet as well as on Base, Optimism and Arbitrum routes, which removes a technical constraint on moving Ether off the largest exchange.

Immediate support lies at $2,250, then $2,200 and $2,177, Friday's low, while resistance sits at $2,300, then $2,385, last week's high, and $2,400, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

🔷 XRP (XRP) approx $1.24-$1.26

XRP has recovered to around $1.25 on Monday from about $1.21 on Friday, consolidating after shedding part of its losses as traders assess whether the early November rebound can gain traction, although it remains below the $1.30 to $1.34 range of the previous week. XRP was among the assets in the first phase of Binance's reopening on Sunday, removing one of the pressures on tokens whose liquidity is concentrated on the exchange. US spot XRP ETFs flipped from inflow to outflow on Friday, according to SoSoValue data, and the XRP Ledger's fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment remains scheduled to activate on 4th November.

Immediate support lies at $1.22, then $1.20 and $1.15, while resistance sits at $1.28, then $1.30 and $1.34, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

◎ SOLANA (SOL) approx $95-$97

Solana is trading at around $95 to $97 on Monday, broadly stable through the weekend but still below the psychological $100 level and the $99 zone that analysts had identified as key support heading into November. Analysts have flagged further downside potential towards about $87 if that zone is not reclaimed, with the near-term direction likely to follow Bitcoin and the pace at which ETF demand returns after a month of outflows.

Immediate support lies at $93, then $90 and $87, while resistance sits at $99 to $100, then $104, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

₳ CARDANO (ADA) approx $0.190-$0.193

Cardano is trading around $0.19 on Monday, holding just below the $0.20 psychological level that analysts had identified as critical support heading into November. On the development side, the 1st November Cardano Improvement Proposal roundup features a draft standard for regulated stablecoins built on the CIP-113 programmable-token framework, which seeks common compliance requirements so that wallet providers can support multiple programmable tokens, alongside a proposal for post-quantum signature verification.

The $0.185 mark provides immediate support, with $0.18 beneath it, while resistance sits at $0.20, then $0.206 and $0.21, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

💕 DOGECOIN (DOGE) approx $0.075-$0.076

Dogecoin is trading around $0.0755 on Monday, little changed over the weekend after Friday's sell-off, with meme coins tracking the broader market's stabilisation rather than leading a rebound.

The $0.074 level provides immediate support, with $0.070 below it, while resistance sits at $0.077, then $0.080 and $0.082, based on the levels identified in recent sessions.

😱 Crypto Fear and Greed Index: Sentiment Recovers to 38 but Remains in Fear

CoinGlass's Fear and Greed Index stood at 38 on Monday, up 3 points from 35 on Sunday and 31 on Saturday after Friday's low of 29, with a seven day average of 40 and a 30 day average of 55, according to data cited by ChainCatcher, while the reading tracked by KuCoin rose to 37 from 30. The steady recovery since Friday reflects the orderly reopening of Binance withdrawals, but the index remains in fear territory and well below its 30 day average, consistent with ETF outflows that have yet to reverse.

🏛 Traditional Markets Context

Treasuries held their gains on Friday as the technology sell-off sustained haven demand, with the ten year yield near 4.92 to 4.93 percent, a seven-week low, the two year near 4.57 percent and the 30 year near 5.31 percent, while the ten year TIPS yield eased to about 2.60 percent; the ten year yield was steady at 4.93 percent early on Monday. Gold's 3.6 percent fall on the same day, despite lower yields and a softer dollar, points to liquidation selling to cover losses elsewhere, and higher oil prices continue to support expectations of further Fed tightening. The dollar rose to about 157.75 yen in Asian trading on Monday on uncertainty over the timing of the next Bank of Japan hike, and sterling traded near $1.34 on Friday.

Outside the United States, Japan's ten year government bond yield eased 7 basis points to 2.77 percent on Friday, about a third of a point lower over the month, as global haven demand returned, while the euro traded near $1.12. Across commodities, Brent is between $110 and $112 after OPEC+ held output steady, gold is near $3,900 after a one-year low, silver has returned to around $50 and platinum is at a 13-month low. The week's central bank calendar runs from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday to the Bank of England on Thursday.

🏢 INSTITUTIONAL & CORPORATE

Apple Reports Its First Quarter Under John Ternus, AstraZeneca Unveils a $1.5 Billion Savings Plan and BP Posts a Record Quarterly Profit

Apple reports fiscal fourth quarter results at 1:30 p.m. Pacific time on Monday, followed by a call that will be John Ternus's first as Chief Executive since he succeeded Tim Cook on 1st September. In July Apple guided to revenue growth of 9 to 11 percent, implying about $111.7 billion to $113.7 billion against $102.5 billion a year earlier, and a gross margin of 47 to 48 percent, below June's 50.1 percent, which included about two points from tariff refunds; Wall Street expects about $113.3 billion of revenue and earnings of $1.99 per share, near the top of the range. The quarter includes only nine days of iPhone 18 Pro sales and none from the $1,999 iPhone Duo, which went on sale on 23rd October, so investors will focus on December quarter guidance, where consensus sits near $153.4 billion, on memory costs and supply constraints, and on the price increases introduced across much of the hardware range in late June. Loop Capital downgraded Apple to Hold last week, modelling 79 million iPhones for the December quarter against 85 million on the Street. After Friday's semiconductor rout, the results are a test of whether investors will reward a business with less direct exposure to AI capital spending.

In London, AstraZeneca rose about 7 percent on Friday to 13,960p, its best day in a year, after third quarter revenue rose 7 percent at constant exchange rates to $16.21 billion and core earnings per share rose 17 percent to $2.79, against forecasts of $15.94 billion and $2.59, with oncology sales up 17 percent to $7.77 billion. The company also launched a restructuring programme, Reshaping for Sustainable Growth, expected to deliver about $1.5 billion of annualised pre-tax savings for reinvestment in a pipeline of more than 180 projects, at a one-off cost of up to $2 billion and substantially complete by the end of 2029, and it kept its target of $80 billion of annual revenue by 2030. Chief Executive Pascal Soriot said late-stage trial results due in 2027 could support more than $20 billion of peak annual sales. BP rose 0.5 percent after posting a record quarterly net profit, with reported profits of $8.46 billion comfortably ahead of forecasts on strong refining margins, and RBC said BP's US Mid-Continent refining exposure should make its fourth quarter refining earnings more resilient than those of peers.

⚖️ REGULATORY & POLICY

Brazil's Licensing Window Closes With About 40 Applicants, the CFTC Sues Utah Over Prediction Markets, US Stablecoin Rules Near Completion and the UK Moves to Tax Qualifying Stablecoins Like Money

In the United States, the CFTC has become a plaintiff against the state of Utah in an escalating dispute over prediction markets, arguing that the Commodity Exchange Act gives it exclusive jurisdiction over derivatives traded on federally registered contract markets and pre-empts conflicting state regulation, at a time when Utah has moved from civil enforcement to felony allegations against company executives. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has proposed eight rulemaking items since June, including prediction market rules and a crackdown on war-related event contracts. On stablecoins, the OCC has said it will issue its final licensing and prudential rule for payment stablecoin issuers by November and be ready to process applications in January, after federal regulators missed the GENIUS Act's 18th July deadline for final rules. Tuesday's midterm elections will determine which party controls the committees that would shape any revived market structure legislation.

In Brazil, the central bank's application window for virtual asset service providers closed on 30th October with only about 40 firms filing, including Binance and Itaú, against expectations of 150 to 200, according to local reports cited by Livecoins; Coinbase filed on 28th October and Mercado Bitcoin has also confirmed its application. Applicants may continue to operate while the central bank reviews their files, a process that can take up to two years, while firms that did not apply must exit the market in an orderly way within one month. From 6th November banks and payment institutions will block transactions with unauthorised providers, cutting off their access to fiat services.

In the United Kingdom, the government confirmed in its 28th October Budget that it will legislate in Finance Bill 2026-27 to treat certain stablecoins more like money for tax purposes, covering tokens that maintain their value by reference to a fiat currency, are backed by fiat or other assets, are widely available and are designed for payments, while interest-like returns from qualifying stablecoin lending would be taxed as savings income. The government also proposed deferring Capital Gains Tax on crypto lending and liquidity pool arrangements until the participant makes an economic disposal, although advisers caution that not every token marketed as a stablecoin will qualify for the new treatment.

📦 COMMODITIES

🪙 Gold: Trading approx $3,880-$3,910/oz

Spot gold fell about 3.6 percent on Friday to close near $3,875 an ounce, its lowest level since 6th October 2025, while December COMEX futures settled 3.3 percent lower at $3,898.90. The metal lost about 3.7 percent over the week and 7.2 percent in October, its second consecutive monthly decline, and now trades roughly 28 percent below its record close of $5,419.83 on 28th January. Analysts attributed the fall to forced, liquidity-driven selling as investors raised cash during the technology rout, together with higher oil prices that have hardened bets on another Fed hike. Gold recovered modestly on Monday to trade around $3,880 to $3,910 as hopes for Iran diplomacy capped the dollar.

🛢️ Brent Crude: approx $110-$112/bbl

Brent fell $1.59, or 1.4 percent, to $111.84 a barrel in early Asian trading on Monday and later extended its decline to about 2.9 percent near $110.2, while US crude fell to between $101 and $102.56 from Friday's settlement of $104.12, as Iranian and Qatari officials held a third consecutive day of talks and no large-scale military clash occurred over the weekend. Brent ended October at its highest level in six months. On Sunday, seven core OPEC+ members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, kept December production targets unchanged for a third month at about 31.01 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia at 10.48 million, and the full 21-country group meets on 29th November to set 2027 quotas, which Rystad's Jorge Leon described as the much more important test. KCM Trade's Tim Waterer warned that sharper rhetoric towards Iran after the midterm elections could push Brent towards $120.

🟠 Copper: Trading below $6.51/lb ($14,350/t)

Copper extended its decline on Friday as the risk-off move in equities and firmer rate expectations weighed on industrial metals, leaving prices below Thursday's LME close of $14,352 a tonne. London-listed industrial metal miners fell 2.9 percent, with Antofagasta down 4.6 percent and Anglo American 3.5 percent, and attention this week turns to China, where policymakers are meeting on support for equity markets.

⚪ Silver: approx $49.00-$50.00/oz

Silver fell nearly 6 percent on Friday to close near $49 an ounce, breaking below $50, and lost about 19.2 percent in October, the steepest monthly decline among the precious metals, which lifted the gold-silver ratio to its highest level since December. Spot silver rallied about 2 percent in Asian trading on Monday to near $49.75 after briefly reclaiming $50.

🪙 Platinum: Trading approx $1,420-$1,440/oz

Platinum fell about 4 percent on Friday to around $1,428 an ounce, a 13-month low, and lost about 16.7 percent in October, leaving it down about 8 percent for the year, the weakest of the major precious metals on an annual basis.

📝 MARKET NARRATIVE & ANALYSIS

Monday 2nd November 2026 tests whether the crypto market can move from crisis management to recovery. The Binance reopening has passed its first stage cleanly: about $4.65 billion left the exchange on Sunday without disorder, volumes stabilised after the initial spike, and coverage of the loss has risen to about 95 percent, which should remove the risk of a run on the largest venue in the industry. Bitcoin's stability, with the weekend range narrowing to a few hundred dollars, suggests that the forced selling of Thursday and Friday has largely run its course. The harder question is demand. Friday's $643 million of Bitcoin ETF outflows and a record streak of Ether ETF redemptions show institutional investors reducing exposure, and until those flows turn, rallies are likely to meet resistance near $80,000. The FBI's attribution adds clarity but also confirms that the stolen assets will be laundered over the coming weeks, a potential source of supply that traders will monitor closely.

In equities, Friday's session shifted the AI debate from cloud and advertising to semiconductors. Intel's collapse, the 7.2 percent fall in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and double-digit declines across several chipmakers show investors questioning the durability of chip demand and margins, while the much smaller fall in the equal-weighted S&P 500 confirms that the selling remains concentrated rather than broad. Apple's results tonight are the week's most important corporate test: a company less dependent on AI capital spending, but exposed to memory costs and its own price increases, could either anchor a rotation within technology or extend the sell-off. Asian markets have shown some resilience this morning, with Korean institutions buying the dip and Chinese authorities signalling support, which reduces the risk of a disorderly regional move.

For monetary policy and geopolitics, the week is unusually crowded. Tuesday brings the US midterm elections, which will shape the legislative outlook for crypto market structure and possibly the timing of any renewed strikes on Iran, alongside an expected Reserve Bank of Australia hike to 4.85 percent. The Bank of England decides on Thursday, and Friday's US jobs report will either reinforce or soften expectations of a December Fed hike. Oil has given back part of its war premium on hopes of a Qatar-brokered reopening of Hormuz, which, if sustained, would ease inflation pressure and support both bonds and risk assets; a breakdown in the talks or post-election escalation would push Brent back towards $120 and keep pressure on gold, silver and crypto alike.

💸 STABLECOINS, TOKENISATION & REGULATORY FRAMEWORKS

Stablecoins: Circle has expanded its Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol to support custom ERC-20 tokens on Arc, the layer one blockchain it launched on 16th September with USDC-based transaction fees and deterministic finality, setting out two integration routes for newly issued tokens and for existing assets controlled by their issuers, after extending CCTP to EURC and cirBTC in September. In Asia, Thailand's WORPT has launched under the Tourist DigiPay regulatory sandbox, allowing foreign tourists to convert USDT and USDC into baht and pay through Thai QR PromptPay, with a physical prepaid card planned for mid-November. In Japan, the chief executive of yen stablecoin issuer JPYC acknowledged on its first anniversary that actual circulation of about 3 billion yen is only a quarter of its internal target, despite cumulative issuance above 10 billion yen and partnerships with Sony Bank and LINE NEXT, a reminder that issuance and genuine payment usage can diverge.

Tokenisation: The Bank of England has opened a consultation on clearing houses accepting tokenised collateral, saying existing rules are not a barrier provided the collateral meets central clearing standards and remains capable of being valued, transferred and realised, including in stressed conditions; the consultation closes on 12th February 2027. In the United States, DTCC's tokenisation service is now live, allowing firms to convert securities held at the Depository Trust Company into tokens backed one for one, covering 34 securities worth about $30 trillion, including stocks, ETFs and Treasuries, on Canton and DTCC's private Besu chain, with 20 firms signed on, including Bank of America, Citi, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. BlackRock has also signed a memorandum of understanding with SBI Holdings and Startale Group to explore connecting tokenised money market funds with the JPYSC yen stablecoin.

Regulatory frameworks: The past week shows regulators moving from principles to operational rules. Brazil's licensing regime has narrowed its market to about 40 applicants, the UK's tax proposals would give qualifying payment stablecoins money-like treatment, and the Bank of England's consultation sets out how tokenised assets can enter core market infrastructure. In the United States, Ripple National Trust Bank received final OCC approval on 26th October and will manage the reserves backing the roughly $2.5 billion RLUSD stablecoin, a sign that federal charters are becoming the main route for regulated stablecoin issuance as the GENIUS Act rules near completion. The Binance theft, now formally attributed to a state actor, will strengthen the case for supervisory focus on exchange signing infrastructure, staff device security and the screening of the DeFi routes used for laundering.

🤖 TECHNOLOGY, AI & INNOVATION

OpenAI Scales Back Its Funding Round and Turns to Google Chips, Anthropic's IPO Filing Puts AI Compute Bills in the Spotlight, and AI Developers Back a Web Opt-Out for Training

Technology: OpenAI plans to buy tensor processing units from Google as it expands its computing resources beyond its established reliance on Nvidia, while continuing to develop its own chip with Broadcom, according to reports on Sunday. The move comes as investors scrutinise the cost of AI infrastructure, with Bloomberg counting more than $3 trillion of AI commitments across five large technology companies, and as analysis of the Kimi K3 model suggests AMD's MI355X can serve tokens at up to 2.3 times lower cost than Nvidia's B200 thanks to greater memory capacity. Friday's chip sell-off reinforces the point that hardware pricing power can no longer be taken for granted.

AI: The Financial Times reported that OpenAI has cut its current funding round by about $10 billion to around $20 billion and lowered its target valuation to $1.25 trillion from $1.4 trillion after investor resistance, with a listing now expected in 2027. Anthropic's S-1, filed on 26th October for a Nasdaq listing under the ticker ANT, remains incomplete, with the share count, price range and third quarter results still blank pending an amendment and a listing reportedly targeted for mid-November, and Axios estimates the company's compute obligations at almost $650 billion. OpenAI is also reported to be winning customers with discounts, with Rippling's share of coding work on OpenAI rising from 16 percent to 52 percent since May, according to The Information.

Innovation: Anthropic, Google, Microsoft and OpenAI have agreed to an Internet Engineering Task Force mechanism that lets websites opt out of AI training, a step towards a standard technical signal for content owners, while New York has banned chatbots that pose as humans when interacting with children and OpenAI has tightened safeguards for teenagers, including limits on weapons information. On security, researchers at Parameter disclosed a ChatGPT vulnerability, rated P1 by OpenAI, that allowed code to run in logged-in sessions through shared links, which OpenAI has fixed by updating its web front end, and Sam Altman said businesses may need new ways to fix security bugs as AI accelerates their discovery.

🌍 GLOBAL MONETARY POLICY & MACROECONOMICS

In the United States, the focus this week is on the labour market, with ISM manufacturing on Monday, JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, ADP payrolls on Wednesday and October nonfarm payrolls on Friday, which will determine whether last week's strong growth and inflation data keep a December hike on course. Treasury yields remain near seven-week lows after Friday's flight to safety. Tuesday's midterm elections, in which all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are contested, add political uncertainty, with forecasters generally giving Democrats an advantage in the House and the Senate seen as more competitive.

In Europe, the euro area economy grew 0.4 percent in the third quarter, down from 0.6 percent in the second, according to Eurostat's flash estimate, with the wider EU expanding 0.5 percent and euro area year-on-year growth edging up to 1.3 percent; economists estimate growth of about 0.2 percent excluding Ireland's 5.5 percent expansion, and Germany grew 0.2 percent. ING's Bert Colijn warned that rising energy prices, including natural gas, will challenge growth over the winter, and that relatively high interest rates and weakening business demand for loans will also weigh on activity. In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee announces its decision on Thursday with Bank Rate at 3.75 percent, after September inflation rose more than expected and strengthened the case for a November hike, while investors welcomed a Budget that was softer than expected on taxes.

In Asia Pacific, the Reserve Bank of Australia announces its decision at 03:30 GMT on Tuesday, with Commonwealth Bank, ANZ and Westpac all forecasting a 25 basis point hike to 4.85 percent after hot September quarter inflation, which would be the fifth increase of 2026 and take rates to levels not seen since 2008, and banks see a rising risk of a further move in February. In Japan, uncertainty over the timing of the next Bank of Japan hike has weakened the yen, and markets are closed on Tuesday for Culture Day, so Asian trading will first price the US election results on Wednesday.

🔴 ELEVATED RISKS: Technology, Geopolitical & Macro

- Technology: Laundering of Stolen Assets and Exchange Liquidity. The FBI expects TraderTraitor to launder the stolen assets, now held primarily in Ether, through DeFi and instant swap services, creating a potential overhang on Ether and a test for cross-chain protocols that have previously processed North Korean proceeds. Binance has covered about 95 percent of the loss, but net outflows of $3.64 billion on the first day of reopening and no timetable for the second phase leave liquidity and confidence risks if withdrawals accelerate.

- Technology: Semiconductor Rout and AI Funding Strain. Intel's worst day since 1974, a 7.2 percent fall in the SOX index and a monthly decline of more than 15 percent in chip shares show the AI correction spreading from software and cloud to hardware, while OpenAI's reduced funding round and the scale of Anthropic's compute obligations point to tightening capital for AI developers. A disappointing Apple outlook tonight could extend the sell-off.

- Geopolitical: Post-Midterm Escalation With Iran. The pause in US strikes ahead of Tuesday's vote may not survive the election, Iran's conditions for reopening Hormuz include sanctions relief and a reduced US military presence that Washington has not accepted, and new mine strikes and an attack on a Qatari LNG carrier show that shipping remains exposed. Analysts warn that Brent could move towards $120 if rhetoric escalates after the elections.

- Geopolitical: Political Uncertainty in Washington and Jerusalem. Tuesday's midterm elections will determine control of Congress and the outlook for crypto market structure legislation and fiscal policy, while Israel faces weeks of coalition bargaining after a deadlocked election, with Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly exploring a unity government with Gadi Eisenkot, raising the prospect of prolonged political uncertainty during the war.

- Macro: Global Tightening and Labour Market Data. With the Reserve Bank of Australia expected to hike on Tuesday, the Bank of England deciding on Thursday after hotter than expected inflation and the Fed's December decision dependent on Friday's payrolls, a strong jobs report would reinforce the global tightening cycle and add pressure on risk assets that have already lost momentum.

- Macro: Precious Metals Liquidation and Cross-Asset Selling. Gold's fall to a one-year low, silver's 19 percent October decline and platinum's 13-month low show that traditional havens are being sold to raise cash during equity drawdowns, a pattern that reduces the benefits of diversification and could deepen losses if another leg of the technology sell-off triggers further margin-driven selling.

🟢 POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS: Institutional & Regulatory

- Institutional: Orderly Reopening at Binance. Binance's resumption of withdrawals across all 15 first-phase networks within about six and a half hours, with volumes stabilising after an initial spike and coverage of the loss reaching about 95 percent from company funds, demonstrates that the largest exchange can absorb a record theft without passing losses to users.

- Institutional: Strength Outside the AI Trade. AstraZeneca's results beat and $1.5 billion savings plan, BP's record quarterly profit and the FTSE 100's first monthly gain in three months show pockets of corporate strength outside the AI complex, while the modest decline in the equal-weighted S&P 500 indicates that most stocks held up far better than the headline indices.

- Institutional: Resilient Bitcoin and Asian Dip Buying. Bitcoin's ability to hold above $77,000 through a record hack and an equity sell-off, the KOSPI's recovery from an early fall with net institutional buying of 570.5 billion won, and the rally in Chinese shares on expected policy support suggest investors are treating the sell-off as an opportunity rather than a trigger for capitulation.

- Regulatory: Swift Attribution of the Binance Theft. The FBI's attribution within about two days, together with the publication of more than 600 Ethereum addresses for blocking and coordination with the Secret Service and IRS Criminal Investigation, gives exchanges and DeFi platforms the information they need to screen and freeze stolen funds.

- Regulatory: Brazil Completes the First Phase of Licensing. The close of Brazil's application window, with major firms including Binance, Coinbase, Mercado Bitcoin and Itaú filing and a 6th November banking cut-off for unauthorised providers, consolidates one of the world's largest crypto markets inside a supervised framework.

- Regulatory: Clearer UK Treatment of Stablecoins and Tokenised Collateral. The UK's plan to treat qualifying stablecoins more like money for tax purposes and the Bank of England's consultation on tokenised collateral in central clearing give firms a clearer route to using digital assets in payments and in core market infrastructure.

📋 Other Stories

More Than 18,000 European Hotels Join the Class Action Against Booking Holdings in Amsterdam

A total of 18,135 European hotels are now taking part in the collective action against Booking Holdings before the Amsterdam District Court, after sign-ups rose 68 percent in the latest quarter, with the hotels seeking billions of euros in compensation over the rate-parity clauses Booking.com applied between 2004 and 2024.

Okta to Join the S&P 500, Replacing Kenvue as Kimberly-Clark's Acquisition Nears Completion

S&P Dow Jones Indices announced after Friday's close that identity security company Okta will replace consumer health group Kenvue in the S&P 500, as Kimberly-Clark's acquisition of Kenvue is expected to close shortly.

Bank of Thailand Raises Its Growth Forecasts on AI-Related Exports but Warns the Recovery Is Narrow

The Bank of Thailand has raised its economic growth forecasts to 2.4 percent for 2026 and 2.1 percent for 2027, citing stronger technology exports and private investment, while warning that the recovery remains concentrated in a limited number of sectors and leaves the economy exposed to the global semiconductor and AI infrastructure cycle.

Hardware Wallet Security in Focus as Keystone Discloses a Website Breach and Singapore Buyers Lose About $3.5 Million

Hardware wallet maker Keystone said a breach of its website exposed buyers' delivery addresses, and separately victims in Singapore have lost about $3.5 million after buying tampered cryptocurrency hardware wallets from local stores, according to reports at the weekend, underlining supply chain risks for self-custody users.

📅 Looking Ahead: November 2026 to February 2027

2nd November: US ISM manufacturing PMI; meeting of the People's Bank of China, financial regulators and major banks on market support; Apple reports fiscal fourth quarter results at 1:30 p.m. Pacific time; Binance's second phase of withdrawals remains pending.

3rd November: US midterm elections; the Reserve Bank of Australia announces its decision at 03:30 GMT, with a hike to 4.85 percent expected; US JOLTS job openings; Japanese markets closed for Culture Day.

4th November: Euro area flash inflation estimate for October; US ADP payrolls; the XRP Ledger's fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment is scheduled to activate.

5th November: The Bank of England announces its Monetary Policy Committee decision, with Bank Rate at 3.75 percent.

6th November: US October nonfarm payrolls; Brazil's cut-off for supervised banks serving unauthorised crypto providers.

Mid-November: Anthropic's targeted Nasdaq listing. 18th November: Deadline for responses to the FCA's cryptoasset perimeter guidance consultation CP26/36. 19th November: Deadline for comments on the FASB stablecoin accounting proposal.

25th November: Second estimate of US third quarter GDP. 29th November: Full OPEC+ ministerial meeting to decide 2027 production quotas.

9th December: FOMC decision. 15th December: CFTC public roundtable on 24/7 derivatives trading and tokenisation.

7th February 2027: Christine Lagarde steps down as ECB President. 12th February 2027: The Bank of England's consultation on tokenised collateral in central clearing closes.

⚠️ Disclaimer

This briefing is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. The Digital Commonwealth Limited does not recommend that any cryptocurrency or digital asset be bought, sold, or held by you. Conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this briefing has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. DCW makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, or correctness. All views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Digital Commonwealth Limited or its affiliates.

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